中国国债发行规模影响因素的实证研究

基于VAR模型,并运用协整检验、方差分解、向量自回归误差修正模型的计量经济分析方法,对我国国债规模的影响因素进行实证分析.实证结果显示,我国国债发行规模与国内生产总值、财政赤字、国债还本付息额、居民储蓄之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,影响国债规模的主要因素是国内生产总值、居民储蓄、国债发行规模本身、财政赤字.     

中国黄金市场期货与现货价格关系实证研究

根据向量自回归模型的脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,借助协整关系和格兰杰因果关系,构建双变量EC-EGARCH模型,对我国黄金期货市场与现货市场的价格关系实证.结果显示,黄金期货与现货之间不存在相互影响关系;协整残差是好的解释变量;杠杆效应和溢出效应不明显;期货市场价格发现功能有待进一步完善.     

Trends in Total and Subgroup Income Inequality in the Singaporean Workforce

This paper examines the trends in income inequality in Singapore using Labour Force Survey data from 1974 to 1998. Trends in inequality within and between age, educational and occupational groups are studied using the Theil inequality index. A new method based on the Gini coefficient is also utilized to explore the nature of inter-temporal variation in within-group inequality. Any increase within age-group inequality is due to changing income shares, while the decrease in educational-group inequality comes from decreases in within-group inequality. The contribution of intereducation inequality has also increased over the years, as has inter-occupational inequality.     

马尔可夫随机场在SAR图像处理中的应用

旅游业是一种外向性特征鲜明、关联带动性强、可持续发展性强的产业。它对地方政府的招商引资工作有着独特而重要的促进作用:旅游项目本身是良好的引资项目;商务旅游的开发直接促进招商引资工作;旅游业的发展有助于塑造和改善地方形象,改善地方投资环境。要充分发挥这些积极作用,就应在商务旅游产品开发、旅游与招商工作相结合、城市建设与旅游开发一体化、旅游与相关产业相结合等方面多下功夫。     

S波段三次宽带倍频器

本文介绍了一种Ｓ波段宽带高效微波倍频器的设计方法，给出了其印刷电路及性能指标。     

Dual scaling and correspondence analysis of preferences, paired comparisons and ratings

The methods of dual scaling (DS) and correspondence analysis (CA) are used extensively in marketing research for analyzing categorical data. When applied to preferences, paired comparisons and ratings, dual scaling has been contrasted with correspondence analysis, as if the two techniques operated differently on these data. In this note, we show that correspondence analysis provides exactly the same solution as dual scaling once the data have been transformed by a so-called “doubling” with respect to the respondents.     

An analytical theory of multi-echelon production/distribution systems

In this paper, we study inventory control problems arising in multi-echelon production/distribution chains. In these chains, material is delivered by outside suppliers, proceeds through a number of manufacturing stages, and is distributed finally among a number of local warehouses in order to meet market demand. Each stage requires a fixed leadtime; furthermore, we assume a stochastic, stationary end-item demand process.
The problem to balance inventory levels and service degrees can be modelled and analyzed by defining appropriate cost functions. Under an average cost criterion, we study the three most important structures arising in multi-echelon systems: assembly systems, serial systems and distribution systems. For all three systems, it is possible to prove exact decomposition results which reduce complex multi-dimensional control problems to simple one-dimensional problems. In addition, we establish the optimality of base-stock control policies.     

Price transmission between products at different stages of manufacturing in forest industries

The theory of demand and supply implies a positive relationship, or “price transmission” between the prices of products at different stages of manufacturing. This relationship was investigated with quarterly prices of softwood stumpage in the US South, and national prices of forest products, from 1977 to 2002. All prices, net of inflation, were found to be nonstationary and there was no evidence of co-integration between prices. Vector autogressive models, augmented by Granger causality tests and multiplier analysis showed that there was a one-to-one permanent positive response of the southern sawtimber stumpage price to a permanent change in the national lumber price. There was also a one-third permanent positive response of the national paper price to a permanent change in the national pulp price. There was no relation between regional pulpwood prices and national pulp or paper prices. When price transmission was significant, the full adjustment took about 2 years.     

土地流转对农户贫困脆弱性的影响研究

研究目的:探究土地流转对农户贫困脆弱性的影响,为防范农户陷入贫困和解决农村贫困提供理论和实证依据。研究方法:本文借助2016年湖北省1682个农户实地调查数据,基于倾向得分匹配法(PSM)和回归方程的Shapley值分解法,分别考察国定贫困线、1.9美元贫困线和3.1美元贫困线下不同类型土地有无转出和转出面积对农户贫困脆弱性的影响。研究结果:土地转出能够显著降低农户的贫困脆弱性,且农户贫困脆弱性随着转出土地面积的增加而降低;从土地转出的异质性来看,水田转出对缓解农户贫困脆弱性的效果更为明显,旱地转出的效果次之。研究结论:应进一步加快农村土地流转,释放农村剩余劳动力,不断增加农户收入,从而降低农户贫困脆弱性。     

我国房地产价格影响因素及其作用效应的计量检验

目前,房地产价格的过快增长已经成为影响民生的突出问题,房地产价格的增长远远超过了居民消费和收入水平的增长。我国政府已经将遏制部分城市房价过快上涨势头、满足人民群众的基本住房需求、促进房地产市场平稳健康发展作为房地产市场的宏观调控目标。因此对房地产价格的影响因素进行实证研究,可以为我国宏观政策的制定与实施提供经验证据。